Oil production around the world does not stay the same year after year. It goes up and down because of several key reasons tied to nature, technology, money, and world events.
One big factor is finding new oil supplies. In the early 1900s, huge discoveries like the 1901 Spindletop gusher in Texas caused U.S. production to nearly triple in just a decade. Big finds in places like California and Oklahoma helped push annual output from 26 million barrels to 64 million by 1900. Today, countries like the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada lead growth through new offshore projects and other developments.
Technology plays a huge role too. When old underground reservoirs run low, new methods step in. Shale fracking in the U.S. nearly doubled production from 2008 levels by 2014, responding to high prices. This shift made the U.S. and Canada top producers using unconventional sources like shale oil and oil sands.
Demand from the global economy drives changes as well. Rising use in places like China and India pushed prices to a record $147 per barrel in 2008. But slowdowns, like in China recently, cut demand and lead to lower production needs. In 2025, global consumption is forecast to rise by 1.1 million barrels per day, with more growth in 2026.
Prices swing wildly and force adjustments. Overproduction in the 1920s and 1930s dropped prices to cents per barrel, leading the U.S. to set quotas in 1933 to protect markets. High prices in 2018 from sanctions on Iran and Venezuela cuts pushed output up, but then U.S. shale booms and extra OPEC supply crashed prices to $43.73 per barrel in 2016. Right now in late 2025, oil sits around $57 per barrel amid swelling inventories and surplus fears.
Groups like OPEC control much of the supply. They hold 72 percent of proved reserves and produce 41 percent of global crude. In 2018, they cut output to lift prices above $80, but later overproduced. OPEC+ plans flat production into 2026, staying 1.3 million barrels per day below targets to balance markets.
Geopolitics and policies add ups and downs. U.S. import taxes in the 1930s blocked cheap foreign oil. Wars, sanctions, and shifts to green energy now pressure traditional output, with non-OPEC nations like the U.S. driving most 2025 growth of 3 million barrels per day.
Sources:
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/oil-dependence-and-us-foreign-policy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
https://www.webpronews.com/silver-outpaces-oil-prices-for-first-time-in-40-years-on-green-demand/
https://www.statista.com/topics/1783/global-oil-industry-and-market/
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
