Acne Rates Are Expected to Rise by 2040
Acne affects millions of people around the world, causing red bumps, pimples, and oily skin that can hurt self-confidence. Experts predict that by 2040, more people will struggle with acne than today. This rise comes from bigger trends in how we live, what we use on our skin, and changes in our bodies.
One big reason is the boom in the beauty industry. Sales of cosmetics and personal care products jumped 20 percent from 2019 to 2024, hitting 593 billion dollars worldwide.[3] Think about all the creams, serums, foundations, and sunscreens people slather on daily. Many of these have oils, fats, and other ingredients that can clog pores if they are not just right for your skin. Comedogenic products, meaning ones that trap dirt and oil under the skin, are everywhere in drugstores and online. As more folks chase perfect skin with heavy makeup or anti-aging creams, breakouts follow.
Climate plays a role too. Hotter weather and longer summers from climate change mean more sweat and oil on the face. In places like Europe and the US, sun exposure is up because of outdoor lifestyles and travel. While too much sun fights some skin issues, it ramps up oil production, setting the stage for acne. Tanning trends add to this, as beds and sprays irritate skin pores.
Aging populations and hormone shifts are key drivers. More adults now get acne past their teen years, linked to stress, poor diets high in sugar, and conditions like PCOS. In PCOS, gut bacteria changes, like more Fusobacterium, mess with insulin and hormones, sparking stubborn acne.[5] By 2040, older groups will grow, and lifestyle factors like desk jobs and screen time will keep stress high, fueling breakouts.
Skin treatment markets hint at the problem. Demand for therapies like photodynamic treatment is soaring because skin issues, including acne and related conditions, are climbing. Projections show hundreds of thousands more cases in Europe alone by 2040, tied to sun habits and aging.[1] In the US, daily diagnoses of skin problems hit thousands, with numbers set to grow.[2]
Diet and pollution wrap in too. Fast food, dairy, and city smog clog pores faster. With global cities expanding, exposure to dirt and chemicals rises. Add in less sleep from always-on phones, and skin barriers weaken.
By 2040, these forces combine: bigger beauty markets push questionable products, warmer climates boost oil, hormones go haywire from modern life, and more people live longer with acne-prone skin. Simple steps like gentle cleansers, less makeup, and sun protection can help, but the trend points up.
Sources
https://vocal.media/longevity/europe-photodynamic-therapy-market-size-and-forecast-2025-2033
https://www.datamintelligence.com/research-report/photodynamic-therapy-pdt-market
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12737205/
https://www.dovepress.com/characteristic-gut-microbiota-in-pcos-ir-patients-and-its-association–peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-DMSO
